TRINETRA

Research: what actually works on Indian markets

Every claim below is a backtest on NSE data with its method, sample size and confidence interval — and most popular ideas fail them. We publish the failures too.

Do order-flow signals — delta, CVD divergence, VWAP bands — predict NSE stock moves?

Across 170,000 stock-checkpoints, every bar-based order-flow signal earned 0–2 basis points: below an ~8 bp round-trip cost. (2026-11-01)

Do volume profile levels (POC, value area, HVN/LVN) work as support and resistance on NSE?

On 9 months of 1-minute data for the 50 most liquid NSE stocks, profile levels held no more often than random prices. (2026-10-30)

Do auditor changes, director resignations and defaults predict stock returns in India?

On 4.5 years of NSE Reg-30 announcements, no red-flag category predicted returns once compared with same-day peers. (2026-10-30)

Drift-band vs monthly rebalancing with Indian costs and capital-gains tax

A 5-point drift band beat monthly rebalancing in most windows, by 0.1–0.6 percentage points a year. (2026-10-30)

Does financial astrology predict the Nifty? A 10-year walk-forward backtest

No. Over 10 years of walk-forward tests the astrological calls were right 39% of the time, against 58% for simply predicting the market's usual drift. (2026-10-27)

Do ROE, Piotroski F-score and margins predict NSE stock returns?

On a 1,537-observation panel of SEBI filings, no fundamental metric separated forward returns over the window tested. (2026-10-21)

Do W.D. Gann's time rules work on the Nifty? A 2007–2026 backtest

Four of five Gann time rules fail on the Nifty; only 'exceeding previous moves in time' survives. (2026-10-19)

TRINETRA is a research and education tool. Nothing on this site is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Markets carry risk; do your own research and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.